With a dramatic fall in applications from overseas students for the upcoming academic year, new numbers released by the Home Office have UK colleges bracing themselves for financial turmoil.
According to the most recent data, there has been a 40% decrease in applications for sponsored study visas, indicating that the previous government's visa limitations are still impeding recruitment attempts.
Last month, the Home Office received just 28,200 applications, a significant decrease from the 38,900 recorded in June 2023.
Typically, the majority of student visa applications are submitted during the summer months, leading many universities to hope for an improvement by September.
But recent data obtained by the Guardian suggests that the sector's challenges are likely to persist.
This downturn in international student numbers could have severe financial implications for UK higher education institutions, many of which rely heavily on the income generated by overseas students.
Enroly, a service used by international students for managing university enrolments, said that data from 31 UK universities shows a 41 per cent decrease in deposits and acceptances by international students up to the end of July.
The decline is particularly pronounced in postgraduate taught master's courses, down by 55 per cent compared to 2023, while undergraduate numbers have fallen by 23 per cent.
This downturn could have severe financial implications for UK higher education institutions, many of which rely heavily on income from overseas students.
Since January, international students taking taught postgraduate courses or undergraduate degrees have been unable to bring family members or dependants on a student visa.
Jeff Williams, Enroly's chief executive, said that international student recruitment for September has been on a downward trend since the start of the year.
He added: "Our UK university colleagues are working tirelessly to continue to attract international students to their programmes.
“One positive note is that the intake appears to be catching up month-to-month from a very slow start."
If Enroly's figures are representative of the sector, about 150,000 fewer international students could arrive on UK campuses this autumn, compared to the 240,000 full-time international students who started taught postgraduate courses in 2021-22 and 104,000 undergraduates.
Mark Corver, chief executive of DataHE, a higher education consultancy, attributed the reliance on international student fees to the previous government's failure to increase domestic tuition fees from £9,250 for nearly eight years.
"That's caused a huge financial distortion that has driven universities to raise income by other means," Mr Corver said.
Experts warn that the combination of declining international student numbers and frozen tuition fees for UK students in England spells trouble for the sector.
Corver suggested that August's A-level results would be crucial for universities' financial health, as better exam grades could encourage more school leavers to enter higher education, potentially offsetting expected losses from international students.
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