Reform UK targets four major upsets today in a potential ‘nightmare’ for Starmer

Reform UK is aiming for multiple electoral upsets today in a series of elections that come at a difficult moment for Labour and Keir Starmer.

The Prime Minister, whose approval ratings have plummeted at an unprecedented rate, faces growing pressure to resign following revelations that he met with a voice coach just before Christmas in 2020, during a strict national lockdown.

Starmer, who previously criticized the Tories for Covid rule violations, had pledged to resign if fined for attending a gathering in Durham. However, the Met Police confirmed they would not investigate the incident due to the time elapsed.

Labour is also under fire for allegedly working with the Conservatives to cancel elections in nine councils this May, a move Nigel Farage has condemned as a “denial of democracy.”

The Reform UK leader has strongly criticized the government for "blocking people from voting for Reform."

Despite this, five council by-elections are proceeding today, with Reform contesting four key seats.

GB News has analyzed the races and identified the seats most at risk from a Reform challenge.

In the council ward of the Bentleys and Frating in Essex, reform is certain to overthrow the Conservatives.

The Bentleys & Frating (Essex)

With more than 40% of the vote in 2023, the Conservatives easily defeated the Liberal Democrats, who received only 3%.

Polling data is available for the larger Westminster constituency, which in this case is Clacton, the home seat of Nigel Farage, but not for constituency wards.

Clacton is a safe Reform seat according to the Nowcast model, which compiles current UK-wide polls and weights them according to historical pollster accuracy and recency.

According to the scenario, an election tomorrow would return the Reform leader with a 32.0% majority.

Baxenden (Lancashire)

The Baxenden council ward, which is close to Accrington, is another election that Reform is expected to win.

In 2024, Labour emerged victorious in a close contest with the Conservatives, taking second place and garnering 51.1% of the vote.

In July 2024, Sarah Smith, a Labour MP, defeated the Conservatives in the Hyndburn seat, which includes the ward.

However, according to the Nowcast model, Reform is expected to surpass the two establishment parties with a majority of 5.4%.

Reform's projected gains in Westminster seats

Rochester East & Warren Wood (Kent)

The first of two Kent elections is in Rochester East & Warren Wood, a strong potential area for Reform UK.

In 2023, Labour defeated the Conservatives, but Reform did not field a candidate.

The ward spans two parliamentary constituencies—Rochester and Strood, and Gillingham and Rainham—both of which Labour won from the Tories in July.

However, the Nowcast model now predicts both seats swinging to Reform. In Rochester and Strood, where Labour’s Lauren Edwards secured victory, Reform is projected to take the lead with a 7.7% margin.

Meanwhile, in Gillingham and Rainham, Labour MP Naushabah Khan is forecasted to lose by 2.9% to Reform.

Gillingham South (Kent)

The second Kent contest takes place in Gillingham South. Labour comfortably defeated the Conservatives in 2023, though Reform did not field a candidate.

Almost all Thames Estuary constituencies are expected to shift to Reform, including Gillingham and Rainham.

The Nowcast model predicts Labour MP Naushabah Khan will be unseated by Reform with a 2.9% margin.

Winnersh (Berkshire)

The only other by-election tomorrow is in Winnersh, Berkshire, where the Liberal Democrats are expected to retain the seat. Reform UK is not contesting this election.