Tarique Rahman's Return to Bangladesh: What's the Hold-Up?

Reports suggest that Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is unlikely to return to Bangladesh before the next general election schedule is announced. While security concerns have been a long-standing issue, new strategic reasons are now influencing his decision.

Sources close to Rahman say that he plans to lead the party's campaign upon his return. Some time ago, it was anticipated he would be back in the country by 2025. However, it now seems his return is tied to the election timeline. If the election is delayed for any reason, his return will likely be postponed as well.

During the last Ramadan, Rahman reportedly received intelligence from reliable sources in Dhaka suggesting that his return before the election schedule is announced could trigger a situation that may not be favorable for the BNP.

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Those close to Rahman believe that his return would create a massive public wave of support, energizing not just party members but the general population as well. The party intends to use this momentum to launch its official election campaign, with a plan to dominate the political landscape immediately following his return. According to the strategy, Rahman will officially kick off the campaign within a day or two of arriving in Bangladesh.

When asked how Rahman would manage to campaign across all 300 constituencies with limited time after the election schedule is declared, a London-based leader in regular contact with him said Rahman's intention is to visit all 64 districts. They believe this is feasible due to the availability of flights to divisional cities and helicopters for district-level travel.

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However, in the event of a time crunch, Rahman may not be able to visit every district. In that case, he plans to hold large rallies in divisional cities where he would formally announce candidates for all the constituencies in that division simultaneously. After that, he would focus on visiting the most critical constituencies. Rahman is also expected to campaign in the two constituencies from which he plans to contest. When asked if he would begin his campaign in Bogura or Sylhet, a central BNP leader said that decision has not yet been made.