Migrant Myth Busted: Foreigners Less Likely to Be Jailed in UK

A significant analysis from Oxford University's Migration Observatory has delivered a powerful rebuttal to claims linking foreign nationals to high crime rates. The report finds that, after adjusting for age differences, non-UK nationals are actually underrepresented in the prison population of England and Wales compared to British citizens of the same age. The findings challenge the premise of anti-migrant rhetoric and protests, refocusing the debate on socioeconomic and demographic factors, not nationality, Daily Dazzling Dawn understands.

The Statistical Reality of Incarceration-

The report leverages official government data to correct a common misinterpretation of statistics.

Overall Proportion: As of June 2025, non-UK nationals made up 12.4% of the prison population. This roughly mirrors the estimated 12% of the general population who are foreign nationals.

The Age Factor: Non-citizens in the UK are typically younger than the overall population. As the 16-24 age group has higher criminality rates generally, the researchers calculated that if foreign nationals committed crimes at the same rate as demographically similar British citizens, they would be expected to constitute 15% of the prison population.

The actual figure of 12.4% means that foreign nationals have a lower rate of imprisonment than their age-matched British counterparts, indicating they are underrepresented in the prison system.

Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory, noted: "There may be differences in rates of criminality between British citizens and non-UK nationals, but we can't pinpoint the precise reasons. Much of this will be explained by differences in age, sex and socioeconomic status."

South Asian Nationals Show Significantly Lower Incarceration Rates

The report highlights a substantial variation in imprisonment rates when looking at specific nationalities, with many South Asian communities demonstrating very low rates of incarceration.

Nationality (as of Q1 2024), Number in Custody,Percentage of Foreign National Prisoners

| Pakistan | 313 | 3.0% |

| India | 271 | 2.6% |

While precise, standalone figures for Bangladeshi nationals are not explicitly published by the Ministry of Justice in its main summaries, data places them within the wider context of low incarceration rates for South Asian communities:

The total "Asian or Asian British" ethnic group accounts for 7,067 prisoners, or 8.0% of the total incarcerated population, which is underrepresented compared to their estimated share of the general population (9.3%).

Furthermore, government data on arrests shows the Bangladeshi ethnic group had an arrest rate of 8.7 per 1,000 people in 2022/23. This is significantly lower than the average for all ethnic groups (11.2 per 1,000) and lower than the White ethnic group (9.4 per 1,000), strongly suggesting a corresponding underrepresentation in the prison population.

The findings indicate that for large segments of the non-UK population, particularly those from South Asia, the crime risk is considerably lower than the national average.

Offence Variation and Political Tensions-The Migration Observatory cautioned that the comparison is complicated by the lack of full age and sex data for all convictions. However, the data does reveal that non-citizens are:

Overrepresented among those convicted for sexual offences (15%) and theft offences, but underrepresented in prison for sexual offences (10%). This paradox suggests non-UK nationals convicted of sexual offences may receive shorter sentences or non-custodial penalties more often than British citizens for similar crimes.

Overrepresented among those incarcerated for drug offences (19.7% of drug-related prisoners were foreign nationals as of June 2025).

Underrepresented for robbery or violence against the person (10.5% of violence against the person prisoners were foreign nationals as of June 2025).

The report's release comes at a time of political unrest, exemplified by the "Pink Ladies" anti-migrant demonstration outside Downing Street. The counter-protest, which included independent MP Diane Abbott and activist Narinder Kaur, highlighted that the rhetoric of groups like the Pink Ladies is a distraction. "Women are not a weapon to be used to disguise racism," stated Kaur, asserting that the focus on one type of man ignores the wider epidemic of violence against women by men they already know. The factual data on incarceration rates now provides an essential tool to ground these volatile political debates in evidence.