Can Sadiq Khan Inherit the Crown That Andy Burnham is Fighting For?

The Labour Party is in the grip of a deepening internal crisis, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer facing record-low personal approval ratings (a net -36 in recent YouGov polling) and an open challenge from Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. This all-out political civil war, fuelled by high-profile resignations and policy disputes, has forced Westminster to quietly consider a critical hypothetical: If Starmer is forced to resign, who is best placed to succeed him?

The power struggle is currently defined by the Burnham Bloc—but the position of London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan, Labour's other highly successful regional leader, presents a politically sophisticated contingency plan for the party's establishment.

The Forces Behind Andy Burnham's Challenge

Burnham's position as the 'King of the North' is no longer a personal brand; it is a movement backed by significant factions across the party, united by frustration at Starmer's move to the political centre.

• The Private Caucus of MPs: Burnham himself confirmed that a number of frustrated Labour MPs have been "privately urging him to challenge" Starmer throughout the summer. These are primarily figures on the party’s 'soft-left' who accuse Downing Street of creating a "climate of fear" and disseminating "alienation and demoralisation" to stifle dissent. While the names of his current parliamentary backers remain secret, the collective grievance is open, centred on Starmer's perceived lack of ideological fire.
• The Policy and Activist Base: The Mayor's policy platform is a direct ideological threat to the Treasury's current fiscal caution. His calls to "roll back the 1980s" via the nationalisation of utilities, a 50p top rate of income tax, and a £40 billion borrowing plan for council housing are applauded by the unions and the party's left-wing grassroots. Furthermore, his calls to scrap the two-child benefit limit directly contradict the government's stance, aligning him with key activists and the newly formed 'Mainstream' campaign group, which is seen as a potential organising vehicle for his bid.
• Public Support as Leverage: Crucially, a recent Savanta poll offered a concrete measure of his appeal: 28% of UK adults believe Burnham would be a better Prime Minister than Starmer, compared to only 14% who said he would be worse. This public favourability, in stark contrast to Starmer’s low ratings, is the primary source of leverage for the Burnham faction.

The Khan Contingency: The Unity Candidate

While Burnham dominates the headlines with his open rebellion, Sadiq Khan has adopted a more calculated strategy. His measured public comment that Burnham was raising "legitimate concerns" was seen in Westminster as a tacit, yet powerful, recognition of the fragility of Starmer’s leadership.

The Hypothetical Scenario

If Starmer's continuous cycle of internal reshuffles and high-profile resignations (including former Deputy Leader Angela Rayner and Chief of Staff Sue Gray) proves unsustainable, the party will seek a rapid succession.

Khan's Strength: Unlike Burnham, who must find a Westminster seat, Khan is viewed as a figure of established executive competence and one of the party's most successful electoral assets. He offers a moderate, successful urban mandate and is less ideologically divisive than Burnham's high-spending, nationalisation agenda, which frightens the fiscal conservatives in the party.

The Unifying Bridge: In a scorched-earth leadership contest between a weakened centrist (Starmer’s successor) and the resurgent left (Burnham), Khan's position is a perfect bridge. He can command the respect of both the left, through his social justice campaigning and progressive London policies, and the right, through his proven track record of winning multiple elections and managing a vast budget.

The Path to PM: Should the Prime Minister resign, the party's establishment would likely see Khan as the only figure with the national profile and political momentum to stop a potentially disastrous, radical shift under Burnham. The path for the London Mayor would involve a rapid by-election in a safe seat—a political manoeuvre entirely plausible in a moment of existential party crisis.

In essence, while Andy Burnham is actively fighting to replace Starmer with a radical new direction, Sadiq Khan is quietly positioning himself as the compromise choice—the unifying 'Plan B' for a party terrified of returning to the economic and political instability of the 1970s that Burnham's 'roll back the 1980s' agenda implicitly promises.