No economic growth in April to June and 0.1% contraction in July to September, ONS revisions show. BRITAIN’S economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter, official data showed Friday (22), raising fears of a potential recession before an election due next year.
Gross domestic product contracted 0.1 per cent between July and September, down from a prior estimate of zero growth, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.
UK appears to be in the front of another recession but worries about whether definitive growth figures due early next year will have a plus or minus sign in front are missing the bigger picture.
Financial markets are betting the Bank of England will be forced to launch a deep round of interest rate cuts in 2024 amid the growing risk of a recession.
Threadneedle Street is widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday after warning that interest rates would need to remain high for a prolonged period to tackle stubbornly high inflation.
However, City investors warned that the Bank’s strategy was increasingly at risk of being abandoned next year amid a rapidly worsening outlook for the economy. Official figures showed UK gross domestic product shrank in October.
Money markets moved to price in four quarter-point cuts to interest rates starting from the summer, anticipating the base rate would be slashed from 5.25% to as low as 4.25% by the end of 2024.
The first cut is expected as early as May, to 5%, with further reductions pencilled in for the second half of the year.
The recession in 2020 only lasted for six months, although the 20.4% reduction in the UK economy between April and June that year was the largest on record.
Small business owners have said the priority should now be to build consumer confidence and that the Bank of England risks being “behind the curve again” amid calls for a cut in interest rates. ONS figures may mean interest rate cuts come earlier than expected as the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee tries to stave off recession and breathe life back into the economy. The base rate is currently 5.25 percent.