A new YouGov MRP model, commissioned by the British Conservative Union and published in the Telegraph last night, shows Labor would win a majority if an election were held today. The model, which uses data from 14,110 respondents between December 12 and January 4, shows that Keir Starmer will win a majority of 120 seats and move into Downing Street, leading to Labor This means that they will win 385 seats. This is an increase of 183 seats for the party since the last election. The Conservatives meanwhile would slump to just 169, losing 196 seats compared to 2019. The Greens would hold on to their Brighton Pavilion seat, without making any further gains – although they come incredibly close in Bristol Central at 38% to Labour’s 40%. It is possible that by election day the party will have done enough to convince voters in the area to give them a shot. Reform UK would fail to win any seats, as the Brexit Party and UKIP did in 2019 and 2017 respectively. This MRP is our first since new parliamentary constituency boundary proposals have been finalised. While this is the first time an election will be fought using these constituencies, notional results calculations allow us to see what the outcome in each seat would have been if the last election had used those boundaries, and therefore which seats would be changing hands. Most notably this includes chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, which is narrowly won by the Liberal Democrats in this model. Other cabinet casualties include Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Welsh secretary David TC Davies (Monmouthshire), attorney general Victoria Prentis (Banbury), and veterans minister Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View). Conservative party chairman Lee Anderson would also lose his Ashfield seat to Labour, and Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge constituency would likewise fall to Labour.