Given the likelihood of tensions after Donald Trump's election, Sir Keir Starmer has been cautioned not to make the same mistakes as Boris Johnson by attempting to "play off" the US and the EU.
While pursuing a post-Brexit reset with the EU based on deeper security and trade ties, the prime minister has made it plain that he wants to be close to the president-elect.
With French President Emmanuel Macron stating on Thursday that Trump "will defend the American interests," such as imposing tariffs on UK and EU exports, it may potentially place the UK in the center of a global power struggle. Macron also said, "The question is whether we are willing to defend the European interest."
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has meanwhile signalled the UK will attempt to negotiate exemptions from any tariffs imposed by Trump while No 10 has signalled an intention to “strengthen the economic partnership” with America amid questions about whether Starmer and Trump can cut a trade deal, at the same time as pursuing closer trade ties with the EU.
But the pair were warned by trade experts against trying to strike simultaneous agreements with both Washington and Brussels – an approach that led to Trump in 2019 criticising Johnson’s Brexit deal because it restricted the UK’s ability to sign an agreement with America.
Instead, the Prime Minister should focus on areas such as security and energy where co-operation with the US may be trickier under Trump, and make a “big public offer to the EU on that”, according to David Henig, UK director of the European Centre For International Political Economy.
“But I suspect old habits die hard and we will instead try to play off the EU and US, which will be very risky,” Henig added.
“I suspect the UK Government will try to make separate deals with the EU and US, and hope this can be achieved on the quiet.
“But the risk is both of them understand what we’re doing and offer less or nothing as a result. Some evidence we tried this previously under Trump.
“When Johnson wanted a UK-US trade deal in 2020 while also negotiating with the EU, he thought he might get good deals from both, but didn’t.
“If the UK Government tries to play a game of four-dimensional chess with the great trade powers I don’t fancy our chances.”
It came as Starmer and Macron attended the European Political Community (EPC) summit of leaders from EU countries and allies in the continent like the UK.
The gathering was hosted by Hungary and its prime minister, Viktor Orban, who is something of a Trump ally and embodies a split among EU leaders on how to deal with the President-elect, which Starmer will have to navigate.
Anand Menon, director of the UK In A Changing Europe think-tank, said: “One of the issues here is Starmer finds himself slightly out of kilter with Europeans who are willing to be more critical of Trump on the one hand and Europeans who really want to cuddle up with Trump on the other, like Orban.
“Europe has a set of discreet positions on the United States.”
At the EPC summit, Starmer chaired a subgroup on irregular migration as he announced new agreements to intercept criminal gangs smuggling migrants through the Western Balkans as part of efforts to bring down small boat crossings.
He unveiled the deals with Serbia, North Macedonia and Kosovo while urging European partners to take action to reduce deaths in the Channel during small boat crossings and tell them that lawful, international cooperation will be key to efforts to tackle the migration crisis.