If mainstream politicians don’t rise to this mounting challenge, voters may find refuge in those who will
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) rarely releases a news release that truly astounds me, but on Thursday, it did so with its most recent migration statistics. It wasn’t just the statistics that astonished me, the fact that net migration was over 900,000 in the year to June 2023. That's already awful. However, I was also astounded by the extent of the figures' modification; all of the most recent estimates are significantly higher than we had anticipated.
I recall waiting for the corresponding set of numbers precisely a year ago, when there was conjecture that the 2023 total would be close to one million. When it touched down at a mere 672,000, it momentarily dampened the spirits of Rishi Sunak's numerous detractors. However, it now appears that the true number was actually rather close to one million.
Overall, these massive revisions show that, over the past three years, 300,000 more people came here than we thought. Those who said that we had lost control of our borders and had no real idea of how many people were coming into the country were right.
And finally I was pretty surprised by the way the ONS reported the figures. The top line in their press release, and in the top ONS post on X (formerly Twitter), was “20 per cent fall in net migration”.
Well, yes, but only because the earlier figures have been revised hugely upwards. The figure for the year to June 2024 – 728,000, the 20 per cent fall – is actually an increase on that original 672,000 estimate for the previous year. A more accurate top line would have been “migration figures revised up significantly, but start to come down”.
We’ve all got a huge interest in reliable migration figures, neutrally and fairly presented. At the moment, it seems we have neither.
In the past 10 years almost four million people net have moved to Britain. Those are the ones we know about. We have no real idea of the number of people here illegally. It’s not straightforward to relate these figures to the overall population, thanks to the stupid decision to allow Scotland to conduct its own census separately from the rest of us, and to do so badly. But the ONS notes that the foreign-born population has gone up by nearly 1.5 million people even since census day, the highest increase for at least 75 years – at a time, of course, when the birth rate for people born here is declining. Five in every six migrants now come from outside Europe.
We can’t carry on like this. We will never become a high-wage, high-productivity economy while we are hooked on the sugar rush of uncontrolled migration.
Most of the country can feel the strain on public services. And while migration isn’t the only reason for our super-high house prices (quantitative easing and super-low interest rates are also responsible), it’s a major contributor to it. We are four million houses short compared to where we would be if we’d built at the same rate as France. Migration over the past 10 years is, plausibly, 1.5 to 2 million households. There, you have a big part of our problem.
Now, these figures probably are going to fall somewhat in the next couple of years – unless Labour relaxes the rules again, perhaps with a migration deal with the EU – because of the restrictions brought in by Rishi Sunak’s government, under pressure from Robert Jenrick, at the end of 2023.
But how far will they actually fall? Experts originally thought the new normal might be around 300,000 a year. Yet after today’s ONS announcement the starting point is significantly higher, so perhaps the future steady state will be, too. And anyway, all these numbers are far too big. Remember that Tory pledge to get migration under 100,000? Well, we did achieve it, just, in one year, the pandemic year, and it took the closing down of normal economic and social life to achieve it.
That is a statement of the depth of our problem. Kemi Badenoch was right, in her rushed announcement earlier this week, to say “we got it wrong”.
We know that, but it’s going to be very difficult to restore credibility when a chunk of the Conservative parliamentary party wills the end but plainly does not will the means: withdrawal from the ECHR. We also know Labour has no intention of putting things right. By the next election, the population will be – at best – 1.5 million people higher, mostly from outside Europe, and all the strains will be that much greater.
Voters’ confidence in politicians’ ability to deal with this problem is now dangerously weak. It’s going to take decisive measures to deal with it: an extremely low and rigorously enforced migration cap, proper border control, deterrence and deportation of illegal migrants and criminals, and a serious and assertive policy of integration for long-term migrants already here. If Donald Trump can do something like this in the US during his presidency, expect calls to repeat it here.
Mainstream politicians must now rise to this task. If they don’t, before long – and I don’t welcome the prospect – they will be elbowed aside by those who will.