Poll: Starmer More Influential Than Sarwar in Holyrood Vote

A new poll suggests that the Prime Minister has a greater influence on Scottish voters than Anas Sarwar.

The survey, conducted by Opinion Matters for the communications firm Big Partnership, polled 1,000 people between February 14 and 18. It comes just before the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow, where Sir Keir Starmer is set to speak on Sunday.

Participants were asked which of the two Labour leaders would have a greater impact on their vote in next year’s Holyrood election. According to the results, 29.5% said Starmer would be more influential, with 12.4% stating he would have a “significantly greater” impact than the Scottish Labour leader.

In contrast, only 12.6% of respondents felt Sarwar would be the stronger influence on their decision, while 27.3% believed both leaders had a similar level of impact.

Labour and the Scottish Conservatives have historically faced challenges due to their associations with their UK counterparts. Scottish Labour’s poll ratings have dropped since their peak last summer, partly due to unpopular decisions and ongoing scrutiny over Starmer’s leadership. Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories have often struggled with interference from their Westminster counterparts.

Fraser Paterson, head of public affairs at Big Partnership and a former Labour MSP adviser, highlighted the challenges this presents for Labour’s campaign strategy ahead of the Holyrood elections. He questioned whether Sarwar could carve out a distinct political identity separate from Starmer, who continues to dominate the political landscape.

Paterson noted that, like the Conservatives, Labour has long dealt with tensions between Holyrood and Westminster. However, he emphasized that these divisions are not inevitable.

“The key challenge for Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar is whether they can develop a more unified strategy,” he said. “For those looking to influence public debate, understanding these dynamics is crucial, as they present both risks and opportunities. Engaging effectively on both sides of the border has never been more important.”