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The Conservative Party could face a devastating loss of around 500 seats in the upcoming local elections on May 1, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK expected to make significant gains, according to a top pollster.
After boundary changes, the Tories—under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership—are defending over 900 seats, while Labour is defending around 280. However, these elections mark the first time these specific council seats have been contested since 2020, when the Conservatives enjoyed strong public support during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout under Boris Johnson.
Tory peer and polling expert Lord Hayward predicts the Conservatives could lose between 475 and 525 seats, potentially slashing their total to around 375–425 and resulting in the loss of control over several councils.
Many of these projected Tory losses are expected in the Midlands and North, where Reform UK could win between 400 and 450 seats. Mrs. Badenoch has already warned her party to expect significant setbacks.
In southern commuter regions such as Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire, and Cambridgeshire, the Liberal Democrats are forecast to gain 70 to 80 seats, possibly increasing their total to around 300—many in areas they already represent in Parliament.
Labour could see a mixed outcome: gaining seats from the Tories but also losing some to Reform. Their final tally may hover around 280 seats, fluctuating by about 25 either way.
Meanwhile, the Green Party is projected to nearly double its presence, possibly winning 60 to 80 seats and pulling off surprise victories in a few regions.
These local elections are harder to predict than usual due to the rise of Reform and, to a lesser degree, gains by the Lib Dems and Greens. As a result, traditional Labour vs. Tory contests are becoming less common, and many seats may be decided by slim margins and low vote percentages.
A recent YouGov poll put Reform UK ahead of the Tories nationally, with support at 25% compared to the Conservatives’ 20%.
Reform is also aiming to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, which was called after former Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned following a guilty plea for assaulting a constituent.
Elsewhere, Kemi Badenoch downplayed remarks by shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, who spoke about uniting the political Right. Though he later clarified that he wasn’t suggesting a formal pact with Reform, Tory leadership has ruled out any such alliance.
This election will see about 1,650 seats contested across 14 county councils, 8 unitary authorities, one metropolitan district, and the Isles of Scilly. Mayoral elections will also be held in regions including the West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and for the first time, Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire.
