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Following a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, India suspended a decades-old treaty that governs water sharing from the Indus river system with Pakistan, sparking fears over the potential for water to be used as a geopolitical weapon.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, has withstood wars and diplomatic tensions. It allocates the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India, while Pakistan receives the majority of water from the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), which account for about 80% of Pakistan’s water supply—crucial for agriculture and energy.
India has long raised concerns about revisiting the treaty to reflect modern needs like hydropower development, irrigation, and climate change adaptation. But this marks the first time either country has formally suspended cooperation under the treaty, with India having the upper hand geographically as the upstream nation.
While the move signals rising tensions, experts say India is currently not capable of significantly blocking or diverting western river flows due to infrastructure limitations. Most of its hydropower projects are run-of-the-river, meaning they don’t store large volumes of water.
Water expert Himanshu Thakkar explains that these plants generate electricity by using flowing water, not by holding it back. India hasn’t even fully used its permitted share of water from the western rivers due to inadequate infrastructure.
The suspension of the treaty means India might now develop new storage and diversion facilities without consulting Pakistan—though this is a long-term possibility given terrain challenges and domestic opposition to such projects.
If India were to advance these projects, Pakistan would likely feel the impact during the dry season, when water levels are already low. Experts warn this could strain relations further and disrupt agriculture and energy production in Pakistan.
Another concern is the "weaponisation" of water—where India could suddenly release stored water without warning, causing flash floods in Pakistan. While such action could also flood Indian territory, sudden silt flushing from Indian reservoirs might cause significant damage downstream.
The situation is part of a broader regional concern. India, as a downstream country on the Brahmaputra river system, also worries about China’s upstream control—especially with China’s growing number of hydropower projects in Tibet, including one of the world's largest planned dams.
In summary, while India can’t currently block river flows on a large scale, the suspension of the treaty opens the door to future changes that could have serious consequences—especially during water-scarce months.
