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A YouGov poll, revealed during the Labour Party conference, has sent shockwaves through Westminster, showing that 62% of Labour members would prefer Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to be the party leader over incumbent Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who was backed by just 29%. This dramatic internal polling, coupled with the increasingly divergent policy positions of the party's two most powerful mayors—Burnham and London Mayor Sadiq Khan—points to a profound internal struggle for Labour's future direction.
The YouGov poll, taken just a week ago among 704 Labour members, starkly illustrates a deep dissatisfaction with Sir Keir Starmer's leadership and the current government's direction. The finding comes amid sustained speculation about Mr. Burnham's ambitions, which he has done little to quash, stating at a conference fringe event that he would have to be "wrenched" out of Greater Manchester, while simultaneously refusing to guarantee he would serve out his full mayoral term.
Mr. Burnham has repeatedly drawn clear policy dividing lines with the Labour leadership, calling for the party to "call out the disaster that Brexit has been"—a position much more critical than the government’s—and expressing a long-term hope that the UK will rejoin the EU. On the economy, he has been accused of "financial naivety" by leadership allies after criticising the government's preoccupation with the bond markets and suggesting a major rebalancing to "overtax people's work and undertax wealth and assets." This combination of high-profile populism and clear policy divergence positions him as a genuine soft-left alternative, and the poll suggests a significant portion of the membership supports his more ambitious, ideological approach.
The Khan-Burnham-Starmer Triangle: Daily Dazzling Dawn Analysis
While Andy Burnham actively courts the party's left and centrist wings with his policy interventions, London Mayor Sadiq Khan has maintained a more cautious, yet equally high-profile, stance. Mr. Khan has explicitly ruled out "doing a Burnham" and seeking a return to Westminster, stating his "intention" is to remain as London Mayor. Crucially, however, he gave a degree of cover to his friend, saying Mr. Burnham was raising "legitimate concerns" about the leadership. This positioning allows Khan to appear above the fray, loyal to the incumbent Prime Minister, yet subtly sympathetic to the party's internal dissent.
Burnham's true threat is contingent on two factors: the Labour Party's performance in next year's local and devolved elections (particularly in London, where Khan will be standing for a fourth term), and securing a seat in Parliament. The poll results suggest that the membership is ready for change, but the parliamentary party (PLP) is the main barrier. Should Labour suffer a setback in the May 2026 local elections, the pressure on Starmer could become insurmountable. The leadership's clear attack line—comparing Burnham's spending ideas to the economic chaos caused by former Conservative leader Liz Truss—shows they are prepared to fight a major economic battle. Sadiq Khan's refusal to be drawn into the contest currently keeps him as a viable, unity candidate for the future, particularly if a contest is triggered after Starmer has fallen, allowing him to bypass the current animosity. Burnham is the immediate, policy-driven threat; Khan is the long-game insurance policy for the current Labour establishment.
Key Conference Developments
The leadership tensions overshadowed several major policy announcements and debates at the conference:
- Immigration Crackdown Vow: New Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood made a keynote speech vowing to do "whatever it takes" to stop small boat crossings. She indicated a willingness to question "assumptions and legal constraints" that have existed "for a generation" and acknowledged that she may have to "sacrifice her own popularity" to secure the borders and break criminal gangs.
- Economic Fightback: Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a strongly received speech, but it was interrupted by a pro-Palestine heckler. Reeves used the moment to robustly defend Labour's foreign policy by confirming the party's commitment to recognizing a Palestinian state. Earlier, she attacked the agenda of Reform UK's Nigel Farage as the "greatest threat" to livelihoods.
- Gaza Motion Passed: A Unison-led emergency motion was passed by a show of hands, calling on the Labour Government to use all available means to "prevent the commission of a genocide in Gaza" and to "fully suspend the arms trade with Israel." This vote is a significant headache for the leadership, exposing a deep division between the party's foreign policy and the views of its activists.
- Reform UK Branded 'Racist': Foreign Secretary David Lammy launched a powerful attack on Nigel Farage's plan to abolish Indefinite Leave to Remain, calling the policy to potentially deport French, Indian, or Caribbean neighbours who are legally settled "racist" and declaring: "I say not in our culture, not in our name, not in our time."
