JENRICK ROCKS BADENOCH: RIVAL’S SURGE FUELS TORY PLOT

Internal Polls Reveal Massive Crisis of Confidence as Members Demand a Reform UK Pact and Predict Leader’s Ousting— The Conservative Party conference has become a battleground for survival, with Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, fighting a profound internal crisis fueled by dire poll numbers and an emboldened rival. New YouGov polling of Conservative members paints a devastating picture of a party rapidly losing faith in its leader, prompting an open discussion about who will be the next face of the Conservative movement, Daily Dazzling Dawn understands.

The Looming Threat: Jenrick Rises to Favourite-The YouGov poll of 652 Conservative members (conducted between September 26 and October 2) delivers a stark reversal of the 2024 leadership contest: Robert Jenrick, who lost to Ms. Badenoch last year, is now the comfortable favourite.

When asked who they would prefer as leader, 46% of Tory members picked Mr. Jenrick, compared to just 39% for Ms. Badenoch. Furthermore, the membership is deeply sceptical of her ability to lead the party to the next election: 49% believe she will be out before the country next goes to the polls.

Jenrick's appeal is clear: he is now seen as the strongest head-to-head challenger against all main alternatives. While Ms. Badenoch would narrowly beat a return by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Mr. Jenrick is rated as comfortably beating Johnson, as well as other long-standing potential challengers like James Cleverly and Priti Patel.

The Active Plot: Undermining the Leader-The political atmosphere in Manchester is toxic. Sources confirm an "active plot" against Ms. Badenoch is underway at the conference, designed not for an immediate, overt coup, but to continually undermine her authority. The leadership is under constant pressure from internal rivals and is fighting an increasingly desperate battle to stop a drip-drip of defections to the rival Reform UK party, including a recent defection by a one-time donor to Badenoch’s own leadership campaign. The target for her removal is reportedly being tied to potential electoral failure in the upcoming May elections.

Badenoch's Biggest Failures and Radical New Pledges-In a desperate bid to win back the party’s right-wing base and combat the Reform threat, Ms. Badenoch has used the conference to deliver some of the most radical policy pledges in recent Conservative history, which also highlight the party's biggest acknowledged failures:

Failure on Immigration: Ms. Badenoch openly admitted to the party faithful, "We failed to bring numbers down and stop the boats. Let’s be honest." Her answer to this failure is a new "Borders" plan promising to deport an ambitious 750,000 illegal migrants over the next Parliament, and a firm commitment to withdraw the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). This move, which follows a legal review by the Shadow Attorney General, is seen as essential to prevent courts from blocking deportations, but carries the significant risk of destabilising the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland. She has even suggested the party would be open to quitting other international agreements, like the UN's 1951 Refugee Convention, if necessary.

Climate Change U-Turn: Signalling a complete break from the past, the Conservative leader has pledged to repeal the landmark Climate Change Act and scrap the UK’s net-zero target. This move, which has been fiercely condemned by former Tory Prime Minister Theresa May as a “catastrophic mistake,” prioritises economic growth and cheaper energy over climate commitments, a radical policy designed to appeal directly to Reform UK voters.

Worsening Public Perception: Beyond the internal party strife, Ms. Badenoch's performance has failed to resonate with the wider public. Polling shows only 20% of the public believe she has done well as leader, with nearly half (45%) thinking she has done badly. She trails Prime Minister Keir Starmer by an average of 9-12 points in preferred Prime Minister polls, and just 11% of all Britons can imagine her in Number 10.

The Reform UK Dilemma: An Open Revolt-Perhaps the most startling development for the Conservative leadership is the open desire among members for an electoral deal with Reform UK, which Ms. Badenoch has repeatedly ruled out.

Against the leader's clear position, 64% of members support an electoral pact (Tories and Reform not standing candidates against each other in target seats). More alarmingly, almost half of the membership (46%) would support a full-blown merger of the two parties. In a hung parliament scenario, members are overwhelmingly clear: they would oppose a coalition with Labour by 93% to 6%, but a massive 73% would welcome a coalition with Reform UK. This profound strategic divergence on the party’s future direction makes Ms. Badenoch’s position almost untenable, as she is fundamentally out of step with the membership on the most critical strategic questionfacing the party.