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Prime Minister Andy Burnham is expected to tell the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Tuesday, 29 September, that the state pension triple lock should be reviewed in the party’s next manifesto. Any change would not take effect before the next general election, with Labour maintaining its existing manifesto commitment during the current parliamentary term.
The proposal would open a debate over how the state pension is increased and how future governments balance pension spending with other public priorities. The issue has emerged alongside Burnham’s plans for long-term reform of social care, which he has said will require an open discussion about how the system is funded.
The state pension triple lock currently links annual increases to whichever is highest among average earnings growth, inflation or 2.5 per cent. The mechanism is intended to protect pensioners from losing purchasing power when prices or earnings rise.
The policy was introduced in 2010 and first applied to the state pension from April 2011. Its operation means the annual increase can exceed both inflation and wage growth when the 2.5 per cent minimum becomes the relevant measure.
Under the proposal expected from Burnham, Labour would consider the future of the mechanism when preparing its next general election manifesto rather than changing it during the current Parliament.
Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell said on Monday that the party remained committed to the triple lock during the current Parliament.
Defence Secretary Wes Streeting also said the government's manifesto commitment remained in place and that the policy would not be scrapped before an election. His comments indicate that any future change would require a different manifesto commitment and therefore a new electoral mandate.
Daily Dazzling Dawn understands that the distinction between the current commitment and a possible future reform is central to the proposal. The announcement is therefore about opening a future policy debate rather than immediately changing pension payments.
The triple lock discussion comes as Burnham prepares to develop proposals for reforming social care.
The prime minister has previously said he intends to develop a long-term plan for social care and present it to voters at the next general election. He has also indicated that additional taxation could form part of the discussion around funding future reforms.
The relationship between pension spending and social care is politically sensitive because both areas involve significant public expenditure and affect large numbers of households.
Reforming the triple lock could therefore become part of a wider debate about the allocation of government resources, although the precise alternative has not yet been set out.
The pension announcement is expected to form part of a broader speech focused on public services, infrastructure and the government's longer-term plans.
Burnham is also expected to outline plans for a publicly owned energy organisation known as the Great British Grid, with the government arguing that it could help speed up connections to the electricity network and support industrial investment.
His conference speech comes as Labour gathers in Liverpool for its annual conference, with the party preparing its policy direction under Burnham's leadership.
A review of the triple lock would not itself change the state pension. Any future reform would depend on the policy included in Labour's next manifesto and the outcome of the subsequent general election.
The immediate position remains that the existing triple lock continues to apply. Any change would therefore be a matter for future policy-making rather than an immediate alteration to pension payments.
The proposal is likely to keep the future of the state pension at the centre of discussions about public spending, social care and taxation as Labour develops its next manifesto.
