In the sun-dappled primary school near his family's 17th-century manor house in the rolling hills of northeast Somerset, there is little enthusiasm for Jacob Rees-Mogg among the assembled parents.

Nikki Joseph, 36, who is picking up her kid, says, "We have learned the hard way that politicians who we feel are just a little bit of a joke can be dangerous." Jacob Rees-Mogg is not my choice for president. In my age bracket, I don't know anyone who is voting for him. It's Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

A succession of polls, which match national polling data to local demographics, suggest the 14-year Rees-Mogg era may be nearing its end. They indicate the instantly recognisable but divisive Conservative MP – known for his flapping double-breasted suits and striped shirts – is currently likely to receive between 25% and 35% of the vote in the new North East Somerset and Hanham constituency, while his Labour challenger, Dan Norris, who is the West of England metro mayor, could get between 40% and 45%.

While some see Rees-Mogg as a harmless English eccentric, who is courteous to a fault and always takes the time to reply to his constituents’ messages, others in the tightly knit Mendip villages the Rees-Mogg family calls home are disturbed by his rightwing views. Joseph singles out Rees-Mogg’s proud claim to have never changed a nappy and his suggestion in 2019 that the victims of the Grenfell Tower fire should have used their common sense and ignored the “stay put” advice issued by the fire service. He later apologised but Joseph thinks it reveals something about his character.

“Jacob Rees-Mogg has shown quite consistently that he doesn’t have a huge amount of respect for humanity,” explains Joseph, who works for the NHS. “He blamed the victims for dying … that it was their fault that they weren’t smart enough to get out of the building and I feel that sums up his attitude.”

Nonetheless, there is still some fondness for Rees-Mogg in East Harptree. “I do know him. My son rides with his son. They go to ponies together,” says Viki Walker, 33, who is collecting one of her children from the nearby nursery. “He is always friendly and polite. I’ve never had an issue with him.”

Yet Rees-Mogg cannot even rely on her vote. She has always voted Conservative but for the first time she is not sure. “I have heard more reasons to vote for the other parties … listening to other people’s views makes you think, are you voting for the right person?”

Further up the lane, the much-loved village pub, the Waldegrave Arms, has recently been saved from developers; residents raised enough to buy it in May after it closed last year. One of the volunteers, Meg Lovell, 40, is no fan of Rees-Mogg. “I absolutely loathe him,” says Lovell in the dark cool of the pub. “He never shows his face around here. His interests don’t align with the interests of the community. More and more people in the constituency are realising that he’s not voting in their interests.”

Lovell, who is voting Labour, is also a governor at the primary school. She says some local families are struggling. “Yes, there are some very wealthy people here but there are also a lot of members of the community who are not wealthy,” she says. “You really can see the pressure that puts on families. The school needs to be mindful of kids being hungry and very conscious of what they ask parents for. Teachers are buying materials out of their own pockets. People see that and they are tired of it.”

This is a sprawling constituency and just over 15 miles away in Hanham, on the southern fringes of Bristol, which has been added to the seat, Reform is picking up votes. “He is one of the least likeable and least relatable politicians,” says Rich Rubino, 37, who owns two local businesses and has previously always voted Conservative. “Reform seems like more of a Conservative party: firmer borders, lower tax, less red tape.”

Some young people are furious with the Tories and planning to vote Labour, but others are considering voting Reform. “Conservative and Labour are both sides of the same coin,” says Harry Howell, 18, a bike mechanic, who has just signed up to join the army. “We need a total change. Bumping the tax threshold up will help a lot of people like me on minimum wage.”

Back on the Mendips, outside West Harptree’s post office, there are at least two people certain to be voting for Rees-Mogg. Lesley Ward, 54, says her son plays cricket with one of his sons and the MP helped her during a planning dispute with the local council. She adds admiringly: “He was absolutely amazing.”

Rees-Mogg’s 85-year-old mother, Gillian, also happens to be visiting the shop. She is upbeat about her son’s chances and has been helping out in his campaign office. “The polling doesn’t reflect the doorstep,” she notes. “He has done a lot for the community and they realise that.” However, if the polls are right, she adds he will not make a fuss: “He will take it on the chin.”