Bangladesh and India relations are going through a transition period with both neighboring countries showing brisk business during the last six months, but restricting visas of both citizens since ouster of former Prime Minister of Sheikh Hasina through a mass protests on August 5, 2024, sources in Dhaka, Kolkata, New Delhi, Agartala and Mumbai said.

This correspondent contacted Bangladesh missions in  Kolkata, New Delhi, Agartala, Chennai and Mumbai and got the clue that the  number of Indian tourists also came down during the last six months. Though Bangladesh missions in India have not updated the number of Indian tourists in Bangladesh during the last six months or several years, the India government updated the data of international tourists on a regular basis, sources said.

Sources said the political tension between two countries will have a reciprocal impact on the issuing of visas on the citizens of both countries.

Sources in Bangladesh Tourism Board and Bangladesh Parjatan Corporation said India’s tourists’ share in Bangladesh inbound tourism constitutes a major share—sometimes 60—75 per cent of total inbound tourism.

Members of Tours operators association of Bangladesh (TOAB) while talking to this correspondent said that political tension and uncertainty certainty hit their business last year and yet to get momentum.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s tourist arrivals in India nosedived during the month of November 2024 as India tightened visa process on security and strategic grounds, sources in Dhaka, New Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Agartala and Chennai said.

According to the India Tourism Board, USA retained the top position in terms of tourist arrivals in India during the month of November 2024 with 20.44 per cent, followed by UK with 10.92 per cent, Bangladesh with 9.71 per cent , Australia with 6.41 per cent and Canada with 6.22 per cent, 2024.

However, Bangladesh still retained top position in terms of tourist arrivals in India during January-November period with 18.96 per cent, followed by USA with 17.39 per cent, UK with 10.14 per cent, Canada with 4.6 per cent and Australia with 4.59 per cent, according to the Monthly Tourism statics of Ministry of Tourism of India.

According to the data, a total of 1635913 Bangladeshis visited India during January—November period of 2024.

However, the during the month of November 2024, a total of 92,012 Bangladeshis visited India .

Foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in November, 2024 were 9,47,610 as compared to 9,48,631 in November, 2023 and 10,92,440 in November, 2019 registering a growth of -0.1% and -13.3% with respect to 2023 and 2019 respectively.

FTAs during the period January-November, 2024 were 86,28,238 as compared to 84,19,014 in January-November 2023 and 97,03,957 in January-November, 2019 registering a growth of 2.5% and -11.1% with respect to 2023 and 2019 respectively. 

Meanwhile, India’s exports to Bangladesh witnessed a robust growth in the concluded calendar year 2024, according to data of Bangladesh Bank, National Board of Revenue (NBR) and Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

According to the National Board of Revenue, India exported cotton and textile related goods worth 13.00 billion US dollars to Bangladesh in 2024.  Bangladesh’s export –oriented ready-made garment (RMG) is heavily  dependent on India raw materials like cotton, PSF, VSF, yarn, woven fabrics and knit fabrics. However, total export of India to Bangladesh will be higher than 13.00 billion US dollars, sources said

Bangladesh exported goods worth 1.01 billion US dollars (11,09,113,570 US dollars) to India during July-January period of 2024-25 fiscal year, according to the data of the export promotion Bureau(EPB)        

Bangladesh’s ready-made garment (RMG) exports grew by 7.23% in 2024, reaching $38.48 billion, up from $35.89 billion in 2023, according to the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Despite a volatile political and economic landscape, the RMG sector demonstrated resilience, recording positive growth in ten out of twelve months, as reported by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

The year started on a strong note, with monthly exports of $3.47 billion in January, $3.19 billion in February, and $3.06 billion in March. However, April witnessed a decline of 6.62%, dropping exports to $2.38 billion. The sector quickly rebounded in May with a 14.59% growth, reaching $3.5 billion, only to face another dip in June, declining by 10.48% to $2.97 billion.

From July onward, Bangladesh's garment exports demonstrated steady growth, overcoming challenges to sustain positive momentum throughout the remainder of the year. In July, manufacturers achieved export earnings of $3.18 billion, reflecting a 2.89% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.

In August, despite political turmoil and a massive popular uprising that led to the ousting of the Sheikh Hasina-led government, exports rose by 7.20%, reaching $3.32 billion. This resilience highlighted the industry's ability to navigate complex socio-political conditions.

According to the Business Standard, a top leading English daily in Bangladesh, a state-of-the-art waterways terminal at Assam's Jogighopa, a strategic town on the northern bank of Brahmaputra that will boost trade between India, Bhutan and Bangladesh, was opened by Indian Union shipping minister Sarbananda Sonowal on Tuesday. The port is part of the PM Gati Shakti Master Plan.

The terminal, whose foundation was laid by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2021, was completed in record time and will be one of the flagship ports of call between India and Bangladesh, a shipping ministry statement said.

Bhutan's commerce minister Lyonpo Namgyal Dorgi also attended Tuesday's launch ceremony.

"The Jogighopa terminal is set to transform connectivity in the region and bolster our trilateral trade with Bhutan and Bangladesh. Its strategic position allows it to play the role of an economic multiplier for the region, a testament to PM Narendra Modi's doctrine of 'neighbourhood first'," the statement quoted Sonowal as saying.

The port is located 90 km from Gelephu in Bhutan, where the kingdom is building a so-called Mindfulness city, 100 km from Bangladesh border and 150 km from Guwahati.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, Bangladesh’s import of textiles related goods recorded at 9125.2 million US dollars during July-December period of 2024-25 fiscal year compared to 7936 million US dollars during July-December period of 2023-24 fiscal year showing 18.8 per cent rise.  The textiles related goods included raw cotton,  yarn,  textiles and articles thereof, staple fibre and dyeing and tanning materials

 Sources in Dhaka and Delhi said the national election in Bangladesh is expected to be held in December 2024 or January 2026 and the political government in India will increase engagement with Bangladesh political government.

Only after national election in Bangladesh, India will bargain with the political government in Bangladesh with different issues and use the ‘card’ issuance of increasing visa on getting special incentives.

Meanwhile, Chief Adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh Dr Mohammad Yunus is set to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the sixth BIMSTEC Summit scheduled to be held on April 4, 2025 in Bangkok, sources in Dhaka, New Delhi and Bangkok said   

The deep political crisis in Bangladesh during the July-August period that saw the ouster of dictator Prime Minister  Sheikh Hasina and Thailand that saw both heads of two governments in both countries stepping down has created uncertainty in holding the sixth BIMSTEC Summit  in Bangkok, sources said.…..

According to newspaper report, the India-Bangladesh relations will normalise once an elected government is in place, said Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi in January, 2025  .

"The military relations between the two countries remain perfect. But if you talk about the overall relations between the two countries, I would say that it will be normal once an elected government comes to power," he said in his annual press conference ahead of the Army Day celebrations in New Delhi.

Dwivedi described Bangladesh as a "strategic neighbour" and said any kind of animosity between the two countries is not in the best interest of either nation.

"I take your mind back to when the Bangladesh army chief recently said that India was a strategic neighbour of his country. It is the same vice versa -- Bangladesh is strategically important to us. We are neighbours. We have to live together, understand each other, and any kind of animosity is not in each other's interest."

Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Dr Mohammed Yunus was scheduled to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BIMSTEC meeting in Bangkok on September 4, 2024 but Thailand postponed meeting as the political crisis griped the southeast Asia

Sources said Dr Mohammad Yunus is also likely to hold talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC meeting and discuss some issues like visa, repatriation of Rohingyas and civil war in Myanmar, security protection of minorities and political cooperation.

Meanwhile, Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will hand over the chairmanship of BIMSTEC to Dr Mohammad Yunus at the end of the summit, sources said.

Sources in Dhaka and New Delhi said the meeting between Dr Mohammad Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will give a positive signal to reach a bilateral relation to a new height-based people to people relations at the BIMSTEC meeting.

Bangladesh has been going through a transition period as the last dictator Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, left the economy in a total disarray. Local and international conspirators are trying to destabilize the country…..

Despite political and social tensions between Dhaka and New Delhi after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the most trusted partner of Indian government, stepped down on August 5, 2024 amid massive protests, Bangladesh-India multilateral relations will grow in the next couple of years, said diplomats, business leaders and policy makers and social scientists.

Meanwhile, amid tension between two countries, Dhaka held the Foreign Office Consultation (FOC) level meeting on December 9, 2024 with Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Md. Jashim Uddin and Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri headed  the respective sides.

Foreign Affairs Adviser of Bangladesh Md. Touhid Hossain held maiden meeting with his Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar on the sidelines of the eighth Indian Ocean Conference in Muscat, Oman and discussed various bilateral issues of mutual concerns and interests.

Sources in Dhaka and New Delhi said that both countries are likely to work out on reducing political tension between the two countries after the ungracious exit of former dictator Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024. 

Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said that Bangladesh must maintain "balanced relations" with India, China, and the United States, as all three nations hold strategic importance for the country.

"Bangladesh holds interests in all countries, and it's crucial for us to remember this," he said during a national dialogue hosted by the Forum for Bangladesh Studies at the Krishibid Institute Bangladesh.

The adviser highlighted the trade relations between India and China, despite their differences, as well as India's close ties with the US, and stressed that it is important for Bangladesh to maintain good relations with all these three countries.

Pointing at the dialogue theme – Unity, Reform and Elections - Touhid said unity was the most important thing. "Bangladesh achieved independence in 1971 against Pakistan as the people of the country demonstrated unity."

Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Adviser of Bangladesh Md. Touhid Hossain held maiden meeting with his Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar on the sidelines of the eighth Indian Ocean Conference in Muscat, Oman and discussed various bilateral issues of mutual concerns and interests.

Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Adviser of Bangladesh Md. Touhid Hossain held maiden meeting with his Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar on the sidelines of the eighth Indian Ocean Conference in Muscat, Oman and discussed various bilateral issues of mutual concerns and interests.

Both sides showed deep interest in deepening the relations and reducing tension between two neighboring  countries in the greater interest of the region.  

Foreign Affairs  Md. Touhid Hossain is attending the 8th Indian Ocean Conference (IOC) being organized in Muscat, Oman on 16-17 February 2025 by the government of the Sultanate of Oman in association with the Indian Government and India Foundation.

The theme of the 8th IOC is "Voyage of New Horizons of Maritime Partnership”, said a press release of the Foreign Ministry.