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A stark warning from the Education Policy Institute (EPI) indicates that England is on track to lose the equivalent of 800 primary schools by 2029 as a result of a dramatic national decline in pupil numbers. The total number of primary school pupils, which peaked in 2018-19, is forecast to fall by a further 4% over the next five years, a reduction of 162,000 children. This decline is overwhelmingly driven by the nation's historically low birthrates, which have been slowing dramatically since peaking in 2010.
However, beneath the bleak national figures lies a crucial demographic divergence: the consistently higher fertility rates within certain British South Asian and British Muslim communities may be the only factor preventing even steeper declines in many local authorities.
The Demographic Divide: South Asian and Muslim Fertility
While the overall Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in England and Wales has plunged to its lowest level since 1938 (currently around 1.44 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1), fertility patterns differ significantly across the population. Academic studies have consistently shown that the British Muslim community registers the highest TFR among major religious groups in the UK.
More specifically, women of British Pakistani and British Bangladeshi origin exhibit a fertility pattern marked by relatively higher second, third, and fourth-birth rates. This suggests a sustained preference for larger family sizes within these groups, even as their fertility rates have declined over generations, they remain a vital counter-trend to the national average.
This is in contrast to the British Indian community, whose fertility rates are often closer to, or in some instances, even below the national average. Thus, the demographic resilience against school closures is highly concentrated in areas with significant populations of Pakistani and Bangladeshi heritage.
Local Resilience vs. National Crisis
The EPI report notes that the decline is amplified in London, with nine out of the 10 local authorities facing the steepest pupil number falls located in the capital. Factors such as outward migration and a move to private education exacerbate the low birthrate issue.
Yet, local authorities with high concentrations of British Bangladeshi communities (such as Tower Hamlets in London) or large British Pakistani populations in cities across the North West and West Midlands, could find their schools less vulnerable to closure. These concentrated, localised high birthrates provide a demographic shield, mitigating the full force of the national decline and offering stability to school rolls in their immediate vicinity.
As Jon Andrews, head of analysis at the EPI, warns of the increasing financial pressures on schools with falling numbers, local councils—particularly those serving diverse, predominantly South Asian and Muslim populations—will need to implement highly tailored, localised strategies. The demographic reality suggests that for these key communities, the conversation may shift from "how to close schools" to "how to manage capacity and sustain quality" in areas where pupil numbers remain robust, thanks to the resilience of their young, diverse families. This vital demographic input from the British South Asian community provides a critical opportunity to maintain essential educational infrastructure where it is needed most.
