MPs are being urged to support plans to make the UK the first nation to eradicate smoking, as new data suggests tobacco could cause nearly 300,000 cancer cases in the next five years.

The proposed tobacco and vapes bill, set for its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday, aims to ban smoking for anyone born after 1 January 2009 by incrementally raising the legal purchasing age for tobacco.

Cancer Research UK highlighted the severe harm caused by smoking—still the UK’s leading cause of death—and urged MPs to act, noting that 350 young people start smoking every day.

The charity described the bill as a “historic opportunity” to prevent thousands of cancer cases and ease pressure on the already stretched NHS.

According to analysis released on Monday, nearly 297,000 new cancer cases linked to smoking could emerge by 2029 if trends continue. Last year alone, about 160 smoking-related cancer diagnoses were made daily.

The study projects cases of cancer caused by smoking before the end of this parliamentary term, which researchers assumed to be in July 2029.

It estimated 243,045 cases in England, 29,365 in Scotland, 15,161 in Wales and 9,090 in Northern Ireland.

Overall, 2,846 cancer cases in the UK could be caused by exposure to secondhand smoke in people who have never smoked themselves, the analysis found.

The latest Office for National Statistics annual population survey estimates about 11.9% of people aged 18 or over – the equivalent of about 6 million people – smoked cigarettes in the UK in 2023. It is the lowest proportion of current smokers since ONS records began in 2011.

However, research shows the equivalent of about 350 adults aged 18 to 25 start smoking every day, with 35,000 having taken up the habit since the king’s speech in July, Cancer Research said.

Dr Ian Walker, the charity’s executive director of policy, said: “Tobacco kills up to two-thirds of its users. The magnitude of damage caused by smoking cannot be ignored and these statistics expose the lives that are at stake.

“We know that smoking rates decline with government intervention. Raising the age of sale of tobacco products and funding cessation services will help to protect people from a lifetime of deadly and costly addiction.”

The charity is urging all MPs to vote in favour of the tobacco and vapes bill. The bill was introduced in parliament at the beginning of November.

It could prevent anyone born after 1 January 2009 from legally smoking by gradually raising the age at which tobacco can be bought.

Restrictions on vape advertising and sponsorship could also be introduced as well as restrictions on flavours, displays and packaging to reduce their appeal to children and young people. Vaping and smoking in playgrounds and outside schools could also be banned.

Walker added: “The tobacco and vapes bill could be one of the most impactful public health interventions in my lifetime. People’s lives are now in the hands of politicians and I urge all MPs to vote for a future free from the harms of tobacco.”

Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, has said the UK finally becoming “smoke-free” would lead to fewer stillbirths and cases of asthma in children, as well as reductions in cancer, strokes, heart disease and dementia.