"Conflict between countries will dominate next 20 years"

Simon Case, the former head of the UK's civil service, believes that the next two decades will be characterized by significant conflict between nations. In his first major interview since stepping down as cabinet secretary in December, Case, who described himself as a "pessimist" given the current global instability, emphasized the need for Western alliances to prepare for this future.

He specifically advised the British government to diversify its nuclear deterrent, suggesting the addition of land or jet-fired missiles to supplement the current submarine-based system. Case argued that relying on a single system for such a critical capability is unwise and that this change should be part of the upcoming strategic defense review.

Case also advocated for increasing the UK's defense spending to 3% of its economic output as soon as possible, a target that the current government has committed to reaching in the next parliament, following an initial rise to 2.5% by 2027. Case, who retired due to a rare health condition at the end of 2024, served as cabinet secretary under four prime ministers.