Corbyn's New Party: A "Good News" Story for Reform UK?

The launch of a new hard-left party by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana has sent ripples through the British political landscape, sparking intense debate about its potential impact. While many believe the new movement could threaten Labour by splitting the left-wing vote, some analysts argue it could inadvertently be a boon for Reform UK.

Britain's leading elections expert, Professor Sir John Curtice, has weighed in on the matter, suggesting that the new party is "good news" for Reform. He argues that by drawing support from the left, particularly from voters who would otherwise back Labour or the Greens, the new party could fragment the progressive vote, ultimately enhancing Reform UK's chances of an overall majority. This view is based on the premise that Reform's primary competition for seats comes from the Conservatives, and a weaker Labour party makes it easier for Reform to gain ground.

Recent polling data from Merlin Strategy, conducted from 25-27 July, provides an interesting wrinkle to this analysis. The survey of 476 Reform voters found that Corbyn outperforms Keir Starmer on almost all key metrics, with a significant number of respondents believing Corbyn is more principled and better understands people like them. This suggests that while the new party is designed to appeal to the left, Corbyn's anti-establishment image and perceived authenticity may also resonate with a segment of the Reform electorate. For example, 61% of Reform voters felt Corbyn understood people like them, compared to 39% for Starmer. Similarly, 64% of Reform voters believed Corbyn was more honest than Starmer (36%).

However, the primary impact of the new party appears to be on the left. Polling from YouGov indicates that 18% of Britons would consider voting for a Corbyn-led party, with that figure rising to 36% among 18-24 year olds. This is particularly concerning for Labour, which saw its support among 18-24 year olds decline in 2024 compared to 2019. The new party is also projected to take 9% of Labour's current support base, with nearly a third of Labour supporters viewing its formation as a positive development. Furthermore, the new party's appeal to voters concerned about issues like the conflict in Gaza could cause significant damage to Labour in areas with large Muslim populations, according to Curtice.

The new party's success, however, is not guaranteed. While it has generated significant enthusiasm, with over 700,000 people signing up to its website, Curtice notes that organization and funding will be key. He highlights that Reform UK has been successful in securing serious financial backing from former Conservative donors, a challenge the new Corbyn-Sultana party will need to overcome. The new movement is also competing for a similar pool of voters as the Green Party, which Curtice describes as Labour's pre-existing challenge from the left.